Curse the Academy Awards! They always manage to make a fool of me after I'm forced to publish my predictions. Although I usually get enough of the minor categories right for a respectable total, my record on the prizes people really care about is pretty dismal.
In other words, read this for amusement only, not for advice in the office pool.
The good news this year is:
1) Most of the major winners are so obvious they could go ahead and engrave the awards without waiting for the votes; and
2) Most of the sure things involve films with queer content or subtext.
Now the bad news:
1) There are no guarantees except that there will likely be surprises, no matter how cut-and-dried the results appear; and
2) Aside from the all-in-our-minds (?) gay love stories among the hobbits in The Lord of the Rings and the seamen in Master and Commander the queer elements tend toward the negative: a lesbian serial killer (Monster) and a story triggered by a male pedophile's rape of an 11-year-old boy (Mystic River). There's also a flamboyant gay stereotype in Lost in Translation, but that movie's a longshot.
When the first part of the Lord of the Rings trilogy failed to win in any major categories it was presumed that the Academy would wait and honor the final chapter for all three. The Return of the King happens to be the best of the lot so there's no reason that scenario shouldn't play out, especially since the Producers Guild and Directors Guild have already given Return of the King and Peter Jackson their top prizes.
Since ROTK isn't nominated for any acting awards, despite early buzz for Viggo Mortensen, Ian McKellen and Sean Astin, it won't win any. It will, however, win for Best Picture, Best Director and most of the nine other awards it's up for; namely Film Editing, Makeup, Original Score, Original Song, Visual Effects and Adapted Screenplay.
Yes, Adapted Screenplay, despite the endless parade of endings in which Frodo loses Sam to a woman but sails into the sunset with Gandalf as Ian McKellen's consolation prize.
That leaves 16 awards to be spread around to other films by the more than 5,800 voting members of the Academy.
Charlize Theron seems to have everything going for her for Best Actress honors. She gained weight (like, e.g., Robert De Niro in Raging Bull, Elizabeth Taylor in Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?), deglamorized (Halle Berry in Monster's Ball, Nicole Kidman in The Hours), played a prostitute (Elizabeth Taylor in Butterfield 8, Jane Fonda in Klute) and played a queer (Hilary Swank in Boys Don't Cry, Tom Hanks in Philadelphia). Oh, and she gave the best performance, which occasionally counts for something.
The Best Actor race is much closer. In fact it's so neck-and-neck between Sean Penn and Bill Murray that Johnny Depp could pull an Adrien Brody and snatch it away from both of them. My feeling is that Penn is one of those people who are so good so often (he could also have been nominated this year for 21 Grams) the Academy will assume they can always reward him later. That's why the likes of Alfred Hitchcock, Howard Hawks, Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole have never won a competitive Oscar and Paul Newman had to wait until his eighth nomination. I think they'll give it to Murray.
Best Supporting Actor could go to any of the nominees so I'll predict my personal choice, Tim Robbins. Best Supporting Actress is likewise a five-way tossup. Renee Zellweger seemed like a shoo-in at first but Cold Mountain didn't do as well as expected in the nominations and there could be some anti-Miramax backlash developing since Harvey Weinstein took it less than graciously. I don't want to jinx Patricia Clarkson, who should already have Oscars for High Art and Far from Heaven but wasn't nominated for them, but she may just be honored for her one-two punch of The Station Agent and her nominated role in Pieces of April.
The Triplets of Belleville is a strong contender and came out late in the year but it's not going to beat Finding Nemo for Best Animated Feature. The Fog of War will take the Documentary Feature prize in a rare year where more than one nominee has actually had a theatrical life.
Sofia Coppola, who has not yet learned to play the game of looking gracious in defeat, will take home the Best Original Screenplay award as a consolation prize for losing Best Picture and Best Director.
The second-most-nominated film, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World won't go home empty-handed. It will win statuettes for Art Direction, Cinematography and Sound Editing.
Seabiscuit's only win will be for Sound Mixing, while Girl with a Pearl Earring will win for Costume Design. Vermeer should actually win the latter award since the costumes come from his paintings.
Tune in Sunday night to laugh at Billy Crystal's jokes, my predictions, somebody's wardrobe and Eugene Levy and Catherine O'Hara's rendition of 'A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow' (will they kiss at the end of the song?) from A Mighty Wind.
